* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 07/31/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 85 78 70 55 43 34 29 28 25 21 20 V (KT) LAND 100 92 85 78 70 55 43 34 29 28 25 21 20 V (KT) LGEM 100 92 84 77 70 58 48 39 35 31 28 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 18 23 30 35 40 40 40 41 43 37 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 6 4 0 0 -3 -3 0 1 -2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 218 218 219 241 253 261 260 260 263 263 273 277 277 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 27.2 27.8 27.9 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.5 28.1 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 136 143 144 139 141 142 145 144 148 143 141 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.6 -54.3 -54.1 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 51 51 54 54 53 55 53 53 53 54 50 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 18 19 18 17 14 11 9 9 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 3 2 6 6 3 10 3 0 3 19 15 23 17 200 MB DIV 36 34 14 12 31 43 33 13 42 56 42 6 -13 700-850 TADV 10 10 6 6 11 9 8 5 7 4 5 0 3 LAND (KM) 888 780 676 568 463 303 328 477 491 525 564 635 717 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.3 18.1 19.0 20.0 20.8 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 148.2 149.3 150.4 151.6 152.8 155.2 157.7 160.0 162.1 163.7 164.8 165.8 166.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 6 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 7 15 17 13 29 24 31 32 37 23 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -8. -12. -18. -22. -22. -22. -21. -23. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -16. -19. -19. -20. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -22. -30. -45. -57. -66. -71. -72. -75. -79. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 14.6 148.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 07/31/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.01 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.31 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 616.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.21 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 07/31/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##