* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 07/31/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 54 52 50 50 50 51 49 45 42 40 38 V (KT) LAND 60 56 54 52 50 50 50 51 49 45 42 40 38 V (KT) LGEM 60 57 54 52 51 49 47 45 42 38 34 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 19 20 17 13 8 13 16 18 15 22 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 1 0 1 3 0 4 5 5 5 11 SHEAR DIR 337 343 348 352 350 327 296 276 288 290 279 277 261 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.3 26.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 143 142 140 134 134 132 133 133 127 131 135 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 62 63 61 56 57 58 58 56 60 61 62 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 22 22 21 23 22 23 23 21 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 15 2 -9 -7 -4 9 -1 8 12 -2 0 200 MB DIV 32 17 -5 -5 -11 -11 14 54 -16 -12 -10 -4 15 700-850 TADV -15 -17 -20 -13 -8 -5 2 -3 -3 3 7 3 4 LAND (KM) 1935 2018 2086 2155 2231 2181 1900 1584 1286 1011 757 485 192 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.2 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.9 129.2 130.5 131.8 134.6 137.2 140.1 142.9 145.5 147.9 150.4 153.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 15 16 12 21 19 3 4 8 1 3 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.8 126.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/31/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 310.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.5% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 07/31/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##