* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENESIS AL722019 08/01/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 42 50 60 67 74 79 81 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 36 42 50 60 67 74 79 81 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 30 34 41 49 58 67 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 16 16 16 13 7 5 8 4 9 6 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -11 -7 -6 -5 -5 1 -2 -5 -3 -3 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 96 94 66 63 51 13 351 354 38 8 301 318 286 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.4 26.5 26.7 27.2 27.5 28.0 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 133 134 133 132 130 119 121 127 131 138 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 132 132 133 132 129 116 118 124 128 137 136 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 69 65 63 60 60 61 63 69 65 65 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 11 9 9 11 12 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 57 65 65 56 54 43 19 2 6 13 13 7 15 200 MB DIV 38 8 -17 -30 -46 -75 -10 6 18 -1 3 10 30 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 -5 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 1803 1696 1590 1515 1444 1309 1236 1190 1130 1060 1032 844 719 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.4 10.3 11.7 12.9 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.4 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 35.7 36.7 37.7 38.4 39.2 41.1 43.1 45.2 47.2 49.6 52.1 54.8 57.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 9 12 12 11 11 12 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 13 17 20 22 13 11 11 8 14 44 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 17. 25. 35. 42. 49. 54. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 9.6 35.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL722019 GENESIS 08/01/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 18.2% 12.8% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 16.6% 9.8% 2.6% 2.1% 7.7% 8.8% 27.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 6.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.4% Consensus: 3.0% 13.8% 7.8% 3.8% 0.7% 2.7% 2.9% 9.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL722019 GENESIS 08/01/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL722019 GENESIS 08/01/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 30 36 42 50 60 67 74 79 81 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 34 40 48 58 65 72 77 79 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 30 36 44 54 61 68 73 75 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 29 37 47 54 61 66 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT