* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/01/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 49 49 48 46 45 42 38 35 33 29 V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 49 49 48 46 45 42 38 35 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 52 49 48 46 44 42 39 36 33 30 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 21 17 14 11 13 16 14 20 20 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 2 2 7 6 SHEAR DIR 345 352 359 355 348 308 276 300 283 277 277 259 261 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.5 26.7 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.4 26.5 26.5 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 144 141 132 137 133 132 133 128 129 130 135 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 59 59 62 61 62 62 66 64 68 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 19 20 19 19 19 17 16 15 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 16 15 -2 -9 -19 -9 -7 -9 -10 -6 -21 -24 -20 200 MB DIV 17 -3 -16 -29 -27 -16 29 13 -5 -8 -19 1 7 700-850 TADV -16 -17 -10 -8 -6 -3 -3 -4 0 1 0 5 8 LAND (KM) 2038 2108 2182 2274 2296 1988 1703 1402 1113 853 619 355 90 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.9 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.8 18.1 18.8 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 128.1 129.4 130.7 132.2 133.6 136.4 139.0 141.8 144.5 146.9 149.1 151.5 154.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 13 13 14 12 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 16 10 7 27 8 3 10 3 2 3 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -13. -17. -20. -22. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.1 128.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/01/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.08 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.11 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 267.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.1% 9.8% 7.4% 3.4% 9.6% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.4% 3.3% 2.5% 1.2% 3.2% 2.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/01/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##