* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/01/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 72 64 57 51 41 32 30 26 24 20 20 19 V (KT) LAND 80 72 64 57 51 41 32 30 26 24 20 20 19 V (KT) LGEM 80 72 65 58 52 42 34 30 26 24 21 20 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 27 34 35 37 40 43 39 40 41 35 32 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 -1 -3 -2 -4 -1 4 -1 1 3 1 SHEAR DIR 225 249 255 254 259 257 262 266 266 269 278 283 288 SST (C) 26.9 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.1 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 133 141 143 141 139 140 143 146 145 149 149 149 147 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.6 -54.3 -54.1 -54.7 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 51 49 49 50 52 52 52 51 51 48 42 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 16 15 14 12 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 2 3 1 -1 0 4 5 14 16 25 25 24 11 200 MB DIV 12 13 18 21 30 36 14 47 35 37 -8 -2 -33 700-850 TADV 8 7 10 11 12 10 7 4 5 1 -1 1 1 LAND (KM) 683 574 474 364 277 291 439 496 582 697 830 949 1067 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.5 18.1 18.9 19.6 20.3 20.9 21.3 LONG(DEG W) 150.1 151.3 152.4 153.7 154.9 157.4 159.7 162.2 164.3 166.0 167.6 168.9 170.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 11 10 8 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 13 14 12 11 29 26 31 28 31 28 23 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -24. -26. -27. -29. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -9. -10. -13. -13. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -23. -29. -39. -48. -50. -54. -56. -60. -60. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 15.3 150.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/01/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.17 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 526.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/01/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##