* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/01/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 54 53 53 50 46 42 36 31 29 28 V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 54 53 53 50 46 42 36 31 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 51 51 48 45 41 36 32 28 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 20 17 11 12 11 16 13 22 27 28 32 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 1 1 1 5 1 2 4 7 4 SHEAR DIR 349 356 351 342 317 285 295 282 269 273 271 262 255 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.3 26.7 27.1 26.6 26.2 26.6 26.5 26.2 26.4 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 139 133 137 131 127 131 129 126 128 135 134 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 63 60 57 57 58 58 59 56 61 63 65 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 18 18 18 19 18 16 14 13 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 9 -8 -16 -24 -13 -9 0 -15 -10 -10 -27 -16 0 200 MB DIV 9 -7 -25 -18 -6 18 43 0 -8 4 14 28 59 700-850 TADV -20 -8 -5 -6 -7 -3 -5 -4 6 3 4 9 11 LAND (KM) 2108 2186 2271 2268 2103 1799 1470 1178 918 650 386 137 74 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.4 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.6 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 129.5 130.9 132.3 133.8 135.3 138.1 141.1 143.8 146.2 148.7 151.2 153.5 155.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 15 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 9 10 26 10 0 6 4 0 2 13 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -19. -24. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.5 129.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/01/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.21 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.37 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 16.6% 15.7% 11.3% 7.8% 13.7% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 3.5% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.7% 5.5% 3.9% 2.7% 4.7% 3.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/01/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##