* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/01/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 68 62 57 51 41 35 30 29 25 23 21 22 V (KT) LAND 75 68 62 57 51 41 35 30 29 25 23 21 22 V (KT) LGEM 75 68 62 56 50 42 36 33 30 28 27 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 34 34 39 39 42 44 42 41 37 36 26 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 1 1 -4 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 250 253 251 255 254 262 263 264 268 273 276 277 270 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 141 139 139 142 146 145 147 149 150 144 141 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 50 49 51 50 50 49 49 49 48 44 43 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 15 13 10 11 9 11 9 9 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 8 8 1 4 6 2 10 18 21 14 30 7 3 200 MB DIV 29 28 25 30 41 24 42 36 45 18 -11 -25 -27 700-850 TADV 11 12 10 13 13 7 6 4 4 4 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 535 432 335 272 291 440 500 586 666 777 922 1024 1051 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.1 19.8 20.7 21.4 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 151.7 153.0 154.2 155.7 157.1 159.5 161.9 164.1 165.4 166.9 168.6 169.7 170.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 13 12 12 9 7 9 8 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 12 14 25 23 29 24 27 29 24 17 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -16. -22. -26. -29. -31. -32. -34. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -24. -34. -40. -45. -46. -50. -52. -54. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.7 151.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/01/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 475.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/01/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##