* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/01/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 52 52 50 45 40 35 28 22 17 18 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 52 52 50 45 40 35 28 22 17 18 V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 52 51 47 43 37 32 27 23 19 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 13 11 11 15 17 20 28 30 36 34 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 2 1 2 2 4 1 0 5 5 1 SHEAR DIR 352 345 343 316 299 284 289 273 271 276 265 260 244 SST (C) 27.7 27.2 26.7 27.3 27.4 26.9 26.3 26.7 26.0 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 133 139 140 134 128 131 124 127 131 136 135 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.9 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 56 57 59 59 58 57 60 65 65 67 68 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 19 19 19 17 15 14 12 10 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -16 -27 -13 -9 -7 -17 -17 -10 -32 -36 0 19 200 MB DIV -2 -23 -22 2 6 59 12 6 -22 -5 19 51 95 700-850 TADV -10 -5 -6 -5 -4 -1 -7 -1 4 1 3 14 17 LAND (KM) 2182 2276 2256 2091 1926 1607 1311 1041 793 536 285 176 247 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.6 16.0 16.3 17.0 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.8 21.1 23.1 LONG(DEG W) 130.9 132.4 133.9 135.4 136.9 139.8 142.5 145.0 147.3 149.7 152.1 154.0 155.5 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 11 12 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 16 9 11 25 22 4 1 9 0 1 6 6 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -9. -15. -20. -27. -33. -38. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.9 130.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/01/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.31 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.13 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.56 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 19.8% 12.7% 12.5% 8.3% 14.3% 10.3% 1.8% Logistic: 0.6% 3.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.7% 4.5% 4.3% 2.8% 4.9% 3.5% 0.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/01/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##