* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/01/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 66 60 53 45 41 35 33 28 25 25 25 V (KT) LAND 75 71 66 60 53 45 41 35 33 28 25 25 25 V (KT) LGEM 75 71 66 61 56 47 42 38 35 32 30 30 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 34 39 38 40 42 37 44 43 34 29 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 -5 -3 3 -3 -1 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 252 255 257 255 258 261 263 266 268 276 278 289 302 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 139 139 140 144 144 146 149 148 147 146 140 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.4 -53.5 -54.1 -54.2 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 48 51 50 51 51 49 49 48 46 42 41 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 16 14 12 10 12 10 11 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 5 0 2 7 2 7 19 13 21 26 16 0 -9 200 MB DIV 24 28 38 33 23 26 59 20 43 -22 -25 -39 -27 700-850 TADV 13 12 12 9 8 8 3 4 5 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 454 349 289 285 337 506 541 583 693 784 849 948 1072 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.4 18.0 19.0 19.7 20.5 21.4 22.1 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 152.7 154.1 155.5 156.8 158.1 160.7 162.8 164.4 166.0 167.2 168.0 169.0 170.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 12 9 9 7 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 13 23 29 24 25 27 32 27 23 18 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -13. -17. -22. -26. -28. -31. -32. -34. -35. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -8. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -22. -30. -34. -40. -42. -47. -50. -50. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.9 152.7 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/01/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 479.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/01/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##