* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/01/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 53 51 48 43 38 33 25 21 23 24 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 53 51 48 43 38 33 25 21 23 24 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 53 52 48 42 37 33 28 24 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 11 13 16 18 18 24 31 32 35 29 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 0 2 4 2 4 4 6 4 -2 SHEAR DIR 346 341 317 294 289 285 279 267 273 269 263 252 232 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 27.2 27.3 26.7 26.1 26.5 26.2 26.0 26.5 27.1 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 138 139 132 126 129 126 124 129 135 135 132 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.2 -53.9 -54.1 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 55 52 56 57 56 57 56 63 63 64 65 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 18 18 18 15 14 13 10 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -27 -15 -10 -11 -1 -22 -10 -25 -36 -18 26 10 200 MB DIV -24 -22 -16 -1 8 35 -1 7 10 14 26 84 45 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -6 -3 -4 -4 -5 4 4 4 9 12 17 LAND (KM) 2236 2242 2077 1913 1748 1444 1164 906 630 367 167 163 372 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.7 20.5 22.0 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 132.4 133.9 135.4 136.9 138.4 141.2 143.8 146.2 148.8 151.3 153.6 155.1 155.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 15 14 13 12 12 13 12 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 20 16 4 0 6 1 0 3 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -12. -17. -22. -30. -34. -32. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.8 132.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/01/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.27 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 325.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.54 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 17.8% 13.4% 8.7% 7.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.4% 4.6% 2.9% 2.4% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/01/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##