* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/02/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 54 47 41 39 34 31 26 22 20 18 20 22 V (KT) LAND 60 54 47 41 39 34 31 26 22 20 18 20 22 V (KT) LGEM 60 54 48 44 40 35 31 28 26 25 24 25 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 36 36 36 34 40 41 47 41 34 19 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -5 2 -1 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 257 262 258 260 268 268 266 268 268 269 255 296 258 SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 139 141 141 143 145 147 149 148 146 144 139 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.7 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 52 51 55 52 50 50 50 51 45 39 33 35 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 13 11 12 9 10 9 9 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 0 4 12 7 12 14 19 20 23 22 3 5 -25 200 MB DIV 17 37 32 27 33 30 49 41 17 -26 -29 -23 -22 700-850 TADV 12 12 9 8 8 2 3 6 5 3 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 384 318 312 357 432 524 564 621 730 828 889 989 1102 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.5 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.8 21.5 22.0 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 154.0 155.4 156.7 158.0 159.2 161.5 163.4 164.9 166.5 167.7 168.4 169.4 170.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 9 8 8 6 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 22 28 23 23 23 27 30 26 21 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -25. -30. -34. -35. -34. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -10. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -19. -21. -26. -29. -34. -38. -40. -42. -40. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.8 154.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/02/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.37 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 368.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.49 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.02 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/02/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##