* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/02/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 60 57 51 45 38 30 23 21 24 23 V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 60 57 51 45 38 30 23 21 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 60 57 51 44 39 33 27 24 23 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 16 19 22 22 29 32 35 29 28 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 1 0 -1 3 2 3 3 5 4 0 SHEAR DIR 339 326 306 293 288 304 260 268 274 267 258 227 208 SST (C) 26.7 27.3 27.3 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.4 25.9 26.3 26.6 27.1 26.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 139 139 133 130 127 129 123 127 131 135 133 128 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -53.6 -53.9 -54.7 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 54 60 58 60 60 62 63 63 63 62 60 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 17 16 14 13 10 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -20 -16 -14 -16 -15 -20 -19 -34 -49 27 26 11 200 MB DIV -16 -18 -11 -15 2 -10 0 12 14 21 82 34 28 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -2 -2 -3 -9 4 2 5 8 14 13 10 LAND (KM) 2230 2072 1914 1750 1586 1281 1001 736 513 289 194 314 585 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.2 18.7 19.0 19.5 20.4 21.7 23.7 26.3 LONG(DEG W) 134.0 135.5 136.9 138.4 139.9 142.7 145.3 147.8 149.9 152.2 154.4 155.4 155.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 15 14 13 12 11 10 12 11 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 21 17 4 2 1 3 0 1 4 6 8 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -22. -30. -37. -39. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.2 134.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/02/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.31 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.25 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.11 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.51 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.88 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 19.6% 15.1% 10.5% 8.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 7.2% 5.2% 3.6% 2.9% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/02/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##