* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/02/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 41 38 34 28 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 48 41 38 34 28 25 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 48 43 38 35 29 26 24 22 20 19 20 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 34 35 32 37 40 45 47 43 26 10 5 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 0 0 3 0 -4 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 264 261 262 265 266 266 264 261 256 249 234 209 223 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 141 143 146 146 149 144 142 142 143 144 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -53.4 -53.6 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 51 53 52 51 52 49 52 51 43 40 35 33 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 12 13 11 8 10 9 10 7 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 3 8 13 14 18 9 16 24 31 31 11 -8 -23 200 MB DIV 23 19 28 35 31 37 55 69 -14 -3 -39 -11 -21 700-850 TADV 13 12 7 5 5 6 5 6 1 2 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 303 288 334 395 477 472 536 600 677 743 803 855 917 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.4 18.3 19.2 20.3 21.2 21.8 22.2 22.5 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 155.2 156.5 157.8 159.0 160.1 162.1 164.0 165.3 166.3 167.0 167.6 168.1 168.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 11 10 9 7 5 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 21 28 26 25 35 30 33 22 21 20 19 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -18. -24. -31. -35. -35. -33. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -17. -21. -27. -30. -34. -39. -45. -46. -44. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.2 155.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/02/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 341.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/02/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##