* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/02/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 59 56 54 49 42 36 28 21 17 18 19 V (KT) LAND 60 60 59 56 54 49 42 36 28 21 17 18 19 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 60 58 55 49 42 37 31 26 22 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 13 17 21 15 30 32 36 38 32 26 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 0 0 5 2 2 -1 2 2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 326 306 292 286 293 268 261 280 278 262 242 231 211 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.8 26.4 26.2 26.6 26.0 26.1 26.5 26.9 26.9 26.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 137 134 129 127 131 124 125 129 134 134 129 122 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -53.8 -54.6 -55.4 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 55 58 58 59 59 59 63 61 64 68 68 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 18 18 16 14 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -25 -24 -24 -18 -15 -12 -18 -41 -14 14 1 -15 200 MB DIV -18 -10 -6 0 -8 14 16 11 21 31 66 36 37 700-850 TADV -6 -2 0 1 -6 -3 4 6 3 15 16 22 17 LAND (KM) 2054 1885 1717 1560 1403 1100 820 566 331 230 314 556 859 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.5 20.1 21.5 23.6 26.2 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 135.6 137.2 138.7 140.2 141.6 144.4 147.0 149.4 151.7 153.7 155.1 155.6 155.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 13 12 11 11 12 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 21 13 5 1 0 8 0 0 3 5 7 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -4. -6. -11. -18. -24. -32. -39. -43. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.6 135.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/02/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.19 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.13 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 342.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 16.0% 13.0% 9.0% 7.5% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.7% 4.4% 3.0% 2.5% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/02/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##