* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/02/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 37 32 28 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 37 32 28 26 23 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 39 34 31 28 24 21 19 18 17 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 35 29 37 40 44 50 49 34 25 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 1 3 4 3 -1 -5 2 0 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 258 260 262 265 261 264 258 268 279 281 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 140 143 146 146 149 143 142 142 142 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 50 46 46 50 44 41 38 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 12 14 10 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 14 25 29 18 17 22 15 22 -2 -15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 26 57 22 28 41 50 10 -6 -21 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 7 7 3 6 8 4 7 1 2 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 285 331 405 469 471 501 578 655 746 814 855 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.9 19.9 20.8 21.4 21.9 22.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 156.8 158.0 159.1 160.2 161.2 163.3 164.9 166.0 167.0 167.7 168.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 10 8 6 5 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 30 25 25 30 31 33 24 25 25 24 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 749 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -15. -24. -32. -37. -38. -40. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -13. -17. -19. -22. -28. -33. -38. -40. -42. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.6 156.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/02/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.57 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/02/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##