* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/02/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 55 52 47 43 33 26 18 21 23 25 V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 55 52 47 43 33 26 18 21 23 25 V (KT) LGEM 60 59 57 54 51 46 40 34 28 24 22 21 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 15 19 19 18 28 34 41 34 38 26 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 -1 5 6 1 0 4 3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 316 305 291 297 303 255 269 271 262 246 231 221 251 SST (C) 27.0 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.7 26.2 26.5 26.4 26.7 26.6 26.4 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 130 128 129 130 131 126 129 128 132 131 128 122 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.7 -54.3 -54.9 -55.3 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 57 58 60 61 61 63 61 61 68 69 65 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 18 16 15 16 11 9 5 9 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -31 -31 -25 -25 -16 -23 -41 -36 -15 -11 -20 -23 200 MB DIV -14 -8 -18 -12 -17 8 12 10 40 51 35 34 20 700-850 TADV -2 1 -2 -12 -8 6 5 7 12 11 17 13 5 LAND (KM) 1891 1722 1554 1401 1248 991 744 494 289 257 408 612 847 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.3 19.9 20.8 22.4 24.6 26.9 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 137.1 138.7 140.2 141.6 143.0 145.4 147.7 150.1 152.4 154.2 155.5 156.0 155.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 14 13 11 12 12 11 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 2 1 1 2 6 1 3 2 3 4 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -9. -14. -18. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -10. -13. -19. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -27. -34. -42. -39. -37. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.9 137.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/02/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.28 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.12 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.10 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 329.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.53 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 13.3% 10.2% 6.5% 6.0% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.7% 3.5% 2.2% 2.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/02/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##