* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/02/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 49 48 44 37 31 25 23 23 27 28 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 49 48 44 37 31 25 23 23 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 50 48 46 41 35 31 27 24 22 22 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 22 19 14 23 34 39 40 36 34 23 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -1 5 7 0 -3 5 2 -1 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 310 292 305 314 285 253 281 271 254 238 246 248 276 SST (C) 26.4 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.1 26.5 26.6 26.9 26.4 26.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 129 130 131 128 125 129 130 134 128 124 119 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -53.4 -53.8 -54.5 -55.3 -55.4 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 59 62 62 62 60 62 60 64 70 72 65 60 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 17 16 16 16 12 11 9 11 12 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -29 -26 -29 -20 -20 -28 -43 -36 -19 -17 -17 -13 200 MB DIV -2 -21 -12 -1 13 21 -11 47 37 55 26 38 25 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -14 -11 0 5 8 6 15 17 24 8 7 LAND (KM) 1705 1547 1390 1242 1096 851 628 392 243 280 499 735 948 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 19.6 20.5 21.5 23.3 25.8 28.1 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 138.8 140.3 141.7 143.0 144.4 146.7 148.8 151.2 153.5 155.2 156.0 156.0 155.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 1 2 6 3 0 3 2 6 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -10. -15. -21. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -7. -11. -14. -13. -12. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -11. -18. -24. -30. -32. -32. -28. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 17.3 138.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/02/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.10 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.15 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/02/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##