* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/03/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 25 23 21 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 31 25 23 21 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 24 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 37 42 41 40 45 43 37 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 4 2 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 256 266 268 269 268 271 281 295 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 143 145 146 148 146 144 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 47 49 52 50 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 11 8 8 8 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 28 26 20 17 18 8 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 16 17 36 46 49 63 -5 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 10 8 8 9 6 6 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 399 470 505 493 506 568 657 747 863 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.4 20.1 20.4 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.8 159.9 160.9 161.9 162.8 164.5 165.8 166.8 168.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 10 8 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 23 24 29 29 31 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -20. -27. -35. -41. -44. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -12. -14. -14. -17. -22. -27. -32. -35. -36. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.8 158.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/03/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.62 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/03/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##