* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/03/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 29 29 26 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 29 29 26 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 32 30 28 26 22 20 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 42 40 40 41 46 41 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 3 1 -1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 257 267 267 266 263 265 269 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 145 148 149 148 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.0 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 46 46 49 48 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 8 9 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 22 25 30 33 25 19 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 21 29 55 55 43 -9 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 5 9 7 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 515 533 557 575 612 716 849 939 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.6 20.0 20.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.3 161.5 162.6 163.5 164.5 166.2 167.7 168.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 8 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 21 21 22 24 29 27 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -12. -20. -30. -38. -44. -47. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -9. -11. -16. -22. -28. -32. -33. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.1 160.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/03/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.8 62.3 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/03/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##