* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/03/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 45 43 40 36 32 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 48 45 43 40 36 32 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 48 45 42 40 35 30 26 23 21 19 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 26 17 17 24 28 33 39 38 35 27 16 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 2 6 5 0 1 0 2 -1 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 306 315 298 251 255 270 267 253 231 233 222 266 309 SST (C) 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 26.5 26.5 26.8 26.4 26.3 25.8 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 130 130 128 127 125 129 129 132 128 127 123 116 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.5 -53.2 -53.9 -54.2 -55.0 -55.3 -56.1 -56.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 60 62 57 61 67 71 72 65 66 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 15 14 12 10 8 9 9 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -33 -26 -19 -23 -35 -35 -46 -33 -31 -42 -55 -38 200 MB DIV 8 -5 14 25 6 4 25 26 55 -2 21 17 9 700-850 TADV -11 -9 -1 6 6 7 7 13 10 14 9 4 5 LAND (KM) 1375 1238 1103 970 838 608 382 267 308 454 641 902 1259 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.8 20.5 21.7 23.5 25.3 27.2 29.6 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 141.8 143.1 144.3 145.6 146.8 149.0 151.3 153.4 155.0 155.9 156.1 155.6 154.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 11 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 3 2 2 0 3 2 6 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -18. -25. -29. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -11. -12. -14. -13. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -18. -25. -27. -32. -36. -33. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.2 141.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/03/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.35 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 277.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/03/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##