* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/03/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 34 35 32 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 34 35 32 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 30 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 42 41 45 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 261 259 267 269 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 146 147 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.9 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 46 48 50 49 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 31 30 31 29 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 34 29 47 51 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 5 7 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 644 674 719 758 806 956 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 163.3 164.3 165.3 166.1 166.9 168.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 14 16 21 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 803 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -12. -21. -31. -40. -46. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. -6. -11. -16. -22. -26. -28. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.2 163.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/03/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 62.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/03/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##