* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/04/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 25 27 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 26 25 27 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 24 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 39 41 41 45 44 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 1 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 259 264 267 270 273 291 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 148 149 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 48 45 44 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 25 20 14 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 18 29 21 -16 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 7 5 10 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 762 815 878 936 999 1156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 165.8 166.7 167.6 168.3 169.1 170.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 23 25 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -9. -19. -31. -40. -47. -50. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -5. -10. -16. -22. -26. -27. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.1 165.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/04/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/04/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##