* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/04/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 31 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 31 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 31 29 24 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 23 25 28 31 37 37 33 34 32 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 1 2 1 3 2 1 2 0 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 272 269 265 269 265 256 251 227 223 225 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.6 26.9 26.7 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 126 126 127 130 133 131 134 133 132 131 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -54.0 -54.5 -54.6 -55.2 -54.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 53 54 59 65 65 63 61 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 12 11 11 10 8 6 7 4 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -29 -34 -25 -19 -55 -53 -50 -47 -50 -46 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 0 -3 -2 8 -20 14 18 12 -4 1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 5 7 2 6 4 5 2 3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 914 798 681 566 451 213 98 122 171 222 234 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.7 20.2 20.9 22.1 23.5 24.2 24.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.1 147.2 148.3 149.4 150.5 152.9 155.0 156.7 158.4 159.3 159.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 10 11 11 10 10 8 3 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 1 1 4 8 3 15 13 8 7 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -13. -20. -27. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -15. -16. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -9. -11. -15. -21. -25. -33. -37. -40. -42. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.0 146.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/04/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.42 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.15 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/04/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##