* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/05/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 25 23 21 20 21 23 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 27 27 25 23 21 20 21 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 20 22 24 26 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 48 47 45 39 33 25 23 16 24 21 29 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -4 -2 -3 -7 -5 -5 -7 -2 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 272 279 288 296 307 332 326 330 309 296 293 285 275 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 144 145 146 151 152 150 151 152 152 154 152 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 38 39 36 37 41 41 41 42 43 46 45 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 17 0 -11 -18 -47 -51 -59 -50 -50 -48 -52 -48 200 MB DIV -12 1 -23 -46 -28 -10 -14 3 -14 12 -7 17 -24 700-850 TADV 2 1 4 3 3 4 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1146 1206 1256 1304 1354 1461 1568 1697 1827 1932 2028 3857 3808 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.3 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.6 21.1 21.7 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 170.4 171.0 171.5 172.0 172.5 173.6 174.7 176.0 177.3 178.4 179.4 180.2 180.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 19 20 22 24 25 28 43 41 35 36 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -5. -12. -19. -25. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.2 170.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/05/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -21.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.10 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.10 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/05/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##