* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/05/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 27 24 21 18 20 21 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 27 28 28 27 24 21 18 20 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 23 22 20 20 21 23 24 26 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 48 45 41 36 34 24 23 22 28 25 28 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -4 -1 -2 -5 -3 -5 -7 -2 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 281 289 294 306 318 325 319 307 303 280 296 280 293 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 149 151 152 149 151 152 153 153 152 149 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 37 34 35 37 40 39 40 40 44 44 48 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 -1 -8 -13 -29 -49 -58 -58 -46 -50 -50 -60 -50 200 MB DIV -12 -34 -47 -44 -36 -19 -18 -20 9 -17 -8 -21 -21 700-850 TADV 2 5 4 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 -3 1 -4 LAND (KM) 1217 1298 1359 1417 1489 1605 1724 1853 1984 2068 3848 3794 3786 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.9 20.1 20.4 20.6 21.2 21.6 21.9 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 171.2 172.0 172.6 173.2 173.9 175.1 176.3 177.6 178.9 179.8 180.6 181.1 181.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 21 22 24 26 30 45 37 34 36 37 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -4. -11. -19. -26. -31. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.5 171.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/05/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -34.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.02 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/05/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##