* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/06/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 29 29 26 22 20 20 22 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 27 29 29 29 26 22 20 20 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 21 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 45 39 37 35 30 25 20 26 21 28 23 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 -1 -2 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 287 292 301 313 322 315 309 303 293 292 298 277 281 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 152 152 150 150 152 152 153 152 150 148 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 12 11 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 33 32 36 37 38 39 38 39 41 42 45 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 2 1 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -10 -11 -25 -41 -44 -53 -42 -44 -45 -43 -51 -52 200 MB DIV -38 -48 -35 -46 -15 -10 1 -5 19 -8 10 -14 -14 700-850 TADV 5 4 5 5 5 1 2 0 1 -2 0 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 1308 1376 1438 1507 1566 1677 1796 1916 2034 3907 3834 3796 3780 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.6 19.6 19.7 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.7 21.2 21.6 21.7 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 172.1 172.8 173.4 174.1 174.7 175.8 177.0 178.2 179.4 180.2 180.9 181.5 182.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 23 24 25 27 38 45 34 34 36 35 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -10. -17. -24. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -5. -5. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.5 172.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/06/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -36.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 82.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/06/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##