* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/06/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 34 36 39 40 39 35 30 26 23 21 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 34 36 39 40 39 35 30 26 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 27 26 26 26 26 25 23 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 27 30 34 28 24 23 14 14 16 18 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 -2 1 -1 1 -1 -3 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 250 233 223 227 232 236 262 282 306 298 291 281 228 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.6 25.4 24.9 24.1 24.6 23.3 21.7 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 133 131 129 131 120 115 106 112 98 81 69 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -55.1 -55.5 -55.6 -56.2 -56.5 -57.3 -57.5 -57.7 -57.4 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 60 62 62 60 61 60 55 55 52 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 5 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -40 -34 -50 -44 19 11 -13 -22 -40 -40 -80 -70 200 MB DIV 2 17 28 21 15 25 45 36 15 2 -8 -17 -24 700-850 TADV 4 9 2 5 7 9 19 21 28 14 29 4 -6 LAND (KM) 249 343 429 516 604 828 1122 1474 1841 1573 1174 813 580 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.7 25.5 26.3 27.0 28.6 30.4 32.5 34.4 35.9 36.9 37.2 36.6 LONG(DEG W) 156.9 157.2 157.1 156.9 156.5 154.9 152.2 148.9 145.3 141.4 137.1 132.8 129.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 9 12 17 18 17 18 18 16 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 13 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 834 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 17. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -11. -18. -22. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 10. 9. 5. 0. -4. -7. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.7 156.9 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/06/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.57 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/06/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##