* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLOSSIE EP072019 08/07/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 32 34 38 40 40 37 33 30 29 25 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 32 34 38 40 40 37 33 30 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 28 27 26 25 25 24 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 32 31 26 20 28 18 12 8 13 17 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -2 0 1 SHEAR DIR 236 227 227 227 212 234 253 266 298 293 284 262 225 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.1 24.3 23.8 23.8 22.1 20.7 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 130 127 127 126 117 109 103 104 86 70 61 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -55.2 -55.5 -55.5 -55.9 -56.2 -56.8 -57.5 -57.9 -57.7 -57.5 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 62 64 62 60 59 52 49 49 45 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 5 4 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -40 -60 -40 5 18 20 -13 -25 -22 -56 -74 -58 200 MB DIV 5 24 19 29 44 34 58 14 15 -18 -18 -18 -20 700-850 TADV 10 2 2 7 7 14 32 23 26 24 24 -3 -9 LAND (KM) 346 439 523 626 736 999 1367 1757 1715 1309 903 582 445 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.7 26.5 27.4 28.2 29.9 32.2 34.5 36.3 37.5 37.9 37.5 36.3 LONG(DEG W) 157.1 157.3 157.2 156.9 156.2 153.9 150.6 147.0 143.3 139.0 134.3 130.0 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 10 11 16 19 18 17 19 19 15 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 15. 17. 17. 15. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -8. -14. -18. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 10. 10. 7. 3. 0. -1. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.7 157.1 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/07/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.30 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072019 FLOSSIE 08/07/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##