* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092019 08/12/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 34 34 35 36 36 35 32 29 25 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 34 34 35 36 36 35 32 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 32 30 28 25 22 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 9 8 4 4 5 8 9 10 19 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 0 -2 2 1 2 4 4 1 -1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 15 33 32 27 37 78 204 246 244 209 202 204 196 SST (C) 29.6 29.1 28.7 27.9 27.5 25.9 24.1 22.9 21.9 21.7 22.4 22.6 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 157 152 144 140 124 105 92 81 78 85 86 90 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 66 66 60 58 59 53 50 44 42 40 39 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 13 -9 -13 0 2 1 13 5 0 -16 -42 -47 200 MB DIV 29 38 20 -7 1 14 3 4 -1 -10 0 -14 -4 700-850 TADV -5 -1 3 -2 -1 0 9 14 16 16 10 10 1 LAND (KM) 412 402 378 403 477 572 703 806 946 1076 1151 1246 1328 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.5 22.7 23.9 25.3 26.0 26.5 26.5 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.4 111.5 112.6 113.9 116.6 119.2 121.8 124.1 126.0 127.8 129.3 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 12 13 13 13 13 11 9 7 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 11 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 15. 16. 16. 14. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 2. -1. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.7 109.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092019 NINE 08/12/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.60 4.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.26 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.78 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 22.2% 20.7% 15.6% 0.0% 18.6% 18.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 6.0% 5.4% 1.3% 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 9.4% 8.7% 5.6% 0.2% 6.5% 6.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092019 NINE 08/12/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##