* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE EP092019 08/12/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 35 34 32 31 28 26 26 26 26 27 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 35 34 32 31 28 26 26 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 36 35 31 27 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 10 12 9 3 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 2 4 -1 2 7 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 21 22 24 40 55 105 129 43 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.1 27.5 27.1 25.6 24.0 23.1 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 145 139 135 120 104 94 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 65 62 59 61 57 55 54 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 4 4 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -13 -18 -4 -1 -25 -9 -16 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 2 -18 2 2 9 0 1 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 3 -3 -1 0 2 5 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 402 382 392 426 459 546 710 842 1044 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.6 21.1 22.0 22.7 23.6 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.4 112.3 113.3 114.3 116.7 119.3 122.0 124.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 11 11 12 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 12 7 4 3 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.3 110.4 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092019 NINE 08/12/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.65 3.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 19.6 to 1.6 0.48 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.20 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.81 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 16.5% 13.5% 9.3% 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.0% 1.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 6.2% 5.1% 3.2% 0.1% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092019 NINE 08/12/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##