* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102019 08/21/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 47 54 64 69 68 67 60 53 45 35 V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 47 54 64 69 68 67 60 53 45 35 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 46 53 56 54 49 43 37 30 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 13 17 19 17 17 10 7 9 10 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 0 1 5 7 2 1 0 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 34 38 61 42 39 42 45 65 77 176 202 170 170 SST (C) 30.2 29.7 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.6 27.0 26.0 24.9 22.9 21.2 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 169 163 165 165 163 158 150 133 122 112 91 73 62 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -50.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 76 76 73 73 72 68 64 64 63 62 57 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 19 20 21 25 24 23 24 21 19 16 13 850 MB ENV VOR 81 88 105 106 90 81 76 54 26 6 -22 -8 -12 200 MB DIV 86 76 81 62 45 32 24 13 -19 -29 -23 -2 -5 700-850 TADV -10 -10 -9 -12 -7 -8 -10 0 -4 1 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 478 517 585 654 677 685 691 625 595 555 445 458 591 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 9 8 7 7 10 11 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 29 22 21 21 19 18 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 427 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 25. 26. 25. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. 11. 8. 4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 24. 34. 39. 38. 37. 30. 23. 15. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.2 106.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102019 TEN 08/21/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 5.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.27 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.19 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 23.7% 20.6% 15.7% 0.0% 18.4% 18.8% 10.5% Logistic: 5.5% 24.7% 9.5% 4.9% 3.2% 9.8% 12.6% 5.8% Bayesian: 2.0% 6.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 6.5% 18.3% 10.6% 7.0% 1.1% 9.8% 10.6% 5.5% DTOPS: 5.0% 31.0% 20.0% 14.0% 5.0% 19.0% 18.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 TEN 08/21/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##