* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102019 08/21/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 52 58 64 72 73 68 63 52 43 33 24 V (KT) LAND 40 46 52 58 64 72 73 68 63 52 43 33 24 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 56 61 68 67 62 54 45 37 30 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 16 20 18 21 14 9 2 10 12 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -4 0 1 4 5 0 4 0 -1 1 3 SHEAR DIR 43 62 44 40 46 50 54 49 206 223 210 195 186 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.7 29.5 28.9 27.9 26.8 25.0 23.3 21.6 20.4 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 163 163 160 153 142 131 112 95 78 65 66 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 76 73 73 72 69 62 58 59 54 53 46 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 18 20 22 22 20 20 17 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 95 108 104 100 107 95 69 49 29 16 5 13 14 200 MB DIV 75 79 65 53 48 21 0 -7 -27 -29 -13 -12 -2 700-850 TADV -9 -11 -16 -11 -9 -19 -6 -7 -2 -3 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 583 667 750 741 751 783 767 724 670 611 561 601 617 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.0 16.3 16.7 17.1 18.0 19.1 20.3 21.8 23.5 25.3 26.9 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 110.2 111.5 112.6 113.7 115.4 116.5 117.4 118.0 118.8 119.9 121.0 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 13 12 11 11 8 7 8 9 10 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 20 22 21 16 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 382 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 16. 14. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. 2. -2. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 24. 32. 33. 28. 23. 12. 3. -7. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.6 108.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102019 TEN 08/21/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.21 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.8% 30.5% 24.7% 18.8% 12.1% 21.1% 20.5% 9.3% Logistic: 16.4% 39.1% 16.6% 10.6% 8.9% 7.5% 2.6% 2.0% Bayesian: 3.5% 18.8% 6.2% 1.9% 1.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 12.2% 29.5% 15.8% 10.4% 7.5% 10.1% 7.8% 3.8% DTOPS: 17.0% 40.0% 25.0% 18.0% 10.0% 22.0% 8.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 TEN 08/21/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##