* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP102019 08/22/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 61 64 64 62 56 48 39 29 19 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 61 64 64 62 56 48 39 29 19 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 59 61 62 58 51 43 35 29 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 19 19 17 15 7 2 8 11 15 17 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 2 3 4 8 1 6 -1 -2 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 56 44 37 48 45 43 40 52 210 219 185 179 181 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.1 28.1 26.9 25.4 23.4 21.7 20.8 20.5 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 163 160 155 145 132 117 96 78 69 66 67 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -51.5 -51.2 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 73 74 72 70 66 60 60 55 52 49 45 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 22 21 21 21 20 18 16 14 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 112 105 110 119 113 85 57 33 18 11 14 25 20 200 MB DIV 100 76 58 43 42 15 0 -34 -24 -25 -12 -2 -3 700-850 TADV -10 -14 -12 -8 -9 -17 -4 -3 -2 -3 0 -6 -3 LAND (KM) 709 755 756 764 786 779 725 680 611 562 594 617 599 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.8 20.1 21.5 23.4 25.0 26.4 27.9 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.9 113.2 114.1 115.0 116.2 117.2 117.9 118.7 119.7 120.8 121.8 122.7 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 21 22 21 19 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 366 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 6. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 16. 19. 19. 17. 11. 3. -6. -16. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.9 110.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102019 IVO 08/22/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 4.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.16 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.51 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 131.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.78 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 26.4% 22.9% 17.7% 11.2% 20.1% 20.2% 7.3% Logistic: 2.7% 9.8% 3.1% 1.5% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 12.7% 8.8% 6.5% 4.0% 7.1% 6.9% 2.6% DTOPS: 13.0% 33.0% 22.0% 17.0% 11.0% 14.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 IVO 08/22/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##