* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP102019 08/22/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 51 52 53 54 53 52 48 42 32 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 47 51 52 53 54 53 52 48 42 32 22 DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 52 53 51 46 39 34 28 23 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 22 21 21 16 13 4 7 11 16 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 2 2 2 7 7 1 5 -2 1 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 41 42 51 49 48 33 22 310 218 167 169 155 170 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.0 26.8 24.9 23.1 21.6 20.6 20.4 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 160 157 153 143 131 112 93 77 66 63 65 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 76 72 71 68 62 59 61 56 57 49 46 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 25 24 25 26 24 24 21 19 15 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 102 107 129 108 87 64 34 12 -11 -17 2 5 -15 200 MB DIV 77 76 62 54 30 13 -20 -36 -15 -12 -15 5 -19 700-850 TADV -13 -10 -13 -10 -20 -9 -11 -2 -5 -1 0 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 827 817 826 811 806 786 716 674 609 566 596 600 589 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.9 20.3 21.9 23.6 25.2 26.7 27.9 28.9 LONG(DEG W) 112.0 113.1 114.2 114.9 115.5 116.5 117.3 118.1 118.9 119.9 120.9 121.6 122.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 9 8 7 8 9 9 9 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 23 21 17 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 376 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 1. -3. -8. -12. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 3. -3. -13. -23. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.7 112.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102019 IVO 08/22/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 4.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.01 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 21.4% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 6.1% Logistic: 0.8% 3.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 8.4% 6.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 5.9% 2.1% DTOPS: 11.0% 29.0% 18.0% 11.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 IVO 08/22/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##