* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP102019 08/22/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 63 63 61 58 53 47 38 27 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 63 63 61 58 53 47 38 27 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 59 62 63 62 57 50 41 34 28 22 17 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 24 27 24 14 4 4 8 15 15 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 5 9 10 4 6 2 1 2 2 3 0 SHEAR DIR 37 37 38 48 50 48 42 205 198 162 155 153 161 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.6 27.1 26.0 23.8 22.7 21.1 21.3 21.0 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 154 150 135 124 101 89 72 74 70 64 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 73 70 68 66 60 59 55 56 50 45 38 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 26 26 26 26 25 23 20 17 13 11 7 850 MB ENV VOR 110 118 98 83 67 44 9 -9 -20 4 11 16 24 200 MB DIV 65 63 60 38 33 4 -36 -10 -14 -4 -10 2 -1 700-850 TADV -9 -16 -21 -29 -22 -1 -1 0 5 0 -6 -11 -12 LAND (KM) 888 881 883 850 828 743 659 627 541 581 625 615 543 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.3 17.1 17.8 19.5 21.3 23.2 25.2 26.9 28.3 29.6 30.7 LONG(DEG W) 113.2 114.0 114.7 115.3 115.8 116.7 117.5 118.7 119.6 120.8 122.1 123.1 123.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 9 9 9 9 11 11 11 9 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 23 19 14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 385 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -2. -6. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -1. -8. -17. -28. -38. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.5 113.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102019 IVO 08/22/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.87 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 3.9% Logistic: 1.5% 4.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 9.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 5.1% 1.3% DTOPS: 15.0% 29.0% 20.0% 12.0% 6.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 IVO 08/22/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##