* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP102019 08/22/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 53 51 47 45 42 36 28 19 18 18 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 53 51 47 45 42 36 28 19 18 18 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 55 53 47 39 33 27 22 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 22 23 22 18 12 2 6 10 17 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 11 11 6 4 4 0 3 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 40 40 50 48 49 40 330 203 172 167 158 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.6 28.0 26.7 25.0 23.5 22.5 21.2 21.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 154 150 144 130 113 97 87 72 72 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 72 69 66 63 60 59 55 55 48 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 25 25 25 24 23 23 20 17 15 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 105 94 74 68 54 31 2 -21 -22 -14 0 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 60 43 30 37 -1 -30 -21 -6 -13 10 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -17 -30 -25 -5 -4 0 0 6 0 -7 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 884 860 849 817 788 695 636 568 525 543 515 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.7 20.3 22.1 24.0 25.8 27.3 28.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 113.8 114.6 115.3 115.8 116.2 117.0 117.8 118.8 119.8 120.5 121.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 22 19 14 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 438 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -7. -11. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -13. -19. -27. -36. -37. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.8 113.8 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102019 IVO 08/22/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.53 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.98 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 13.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 4.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 7.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 IVO 08/22/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##