* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP102019 08/23/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 49 47 46 42 37 32 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 49 47 46 42 37 32 26 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 54 52 50 48 41 34 28 23 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 22 20 17 12 5 4 7 16 16 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 12 9 5 6 2 3 1 3 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 43 46 52 43 49 44 189 195 167 165 166 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.3 27.2 26.1 24.1 23.2 22.1 21.0 21.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 154 147 136 124 104 94 82 70 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 68 64 60 60 58 55 51 46 38 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 24 25 24 21 18 16 12 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 64 57 43 35 -2 -15 -39 -30 -22 -3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 53 38 41 19 -28 -24 -24 -8 -13 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -29 -23 -9 0 0 2 7 0 -5 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 825 796 777 753 713 625 588 490 487 485 484 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.7 19.5 21.2 23.1 25.1 26.8 28.1 29.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.0 114.6 115.1 115.7 116.2 117.0 118.0 118.9 119.8 120.4 120.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 10 11 10 8 6 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 20 17 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. -21. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -9. -13. -18. -23. -29. -38. -47. -47. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.5 114.0 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102019 IVO 08/23/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.51 2.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.10 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.69 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.6% 13.5% 9.4% 0.0% 13.5% 11.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.9% 4.5% 3.1% 0.0% 4.5% 3.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 IVO 08/23/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##