* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP102019 08/23/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 43 41 38 34 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 43 41 38 34 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 47 45 42 39 34 29 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 22 15 10 9 3 6 10 15 17 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 12 8 3 4 4 2 2 3 0 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 52 58 55 53 43 304 208 179 175 169 182 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.4 27.3 26.3 25.3 24.0 22.8 21.6 20.8 20.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 148 137 126 116 103 89 76 67 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 64 63 60 62 55 54 48 45 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 24 24 23 22 19 16 13 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 61 46 38 10 -3 -35 -32 -25 -13 -13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 46 42 25 -1 -26 -21 -10 -13 -3 -26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -24 -21 -6 -1 -2 -2 1 4 0 -7 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 749 719 699 658 608 545 484 430 447 432 405 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.8 20.6 22.3 24.2 26.1 27.3 28.3 29.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.3 114.8 115.2 115.7 116.1 116.9 117.8 118.9 119.5 119.9 120.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 8 6 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 15 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -3. -8. -13. -19. -23. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -22. -30. -39. -48. -48. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 17.5 114.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102019 IVO 08/23/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.49 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.23 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.34 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 17.7% 12.9% 8.4% 6.9% 13.9% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 6.0% 4.3% 2.8% 2.3% 4.7% 3.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 IVO 08/23/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##