* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052019 08/24/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 51 59 65 68 69 72 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 51 59 65 68 69 72 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 37 41 46 52 57 61 62 63 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 8 3 6 5 11 6 12 10 11 16 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 3 1 3 -1 -3 -1 -3 -2 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 111 109 107 69 24 340 337 287 285 245 239 226 235 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 137 138 137 141 145 150 152 155 159 155 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 136 137 136 140 144 148 149 151 156 151 149 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 42 43 42 41 41 42 44 48 50 51 51 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 39 37 35 22 16 17 9 18 15 9 10 25 11 200 MB DIV -1 -1 -7 -20 -32 -22 -29 -11 21 33 35 58 -4 700-850 TADV -5 -7 -5 -5 -6 -4 -1 0 1 -1 2 0 2 LAND (KM) 815 761 715 679 645 625 586 469 370 378 456 291 156 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 9 10 10 9 10 10 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 12 12 17 32 43 38 41 47 48 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 21. 29. 35. 38. 39. 42. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.3 47.4 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 FIVE 08/24/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 258.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 19.2% 13.4% 8.9% 8.7% 11.1% 14.7% 23.4% Logistic: 3.8% 13.2% 10.7% 3.9% 1.2% 8.2% 8.5% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 2.8% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 3.3% 11.7% 8.9% 4.3% 3.3% 6.7% 7.8% 12.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 FIVE 08/24/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 FIVE 08/24/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 43 51 59 65 68 69 72 70 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 40 48 56 62 65 66 69 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 43 51 57 60 61 64 62 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 35 43 49 52 53 56 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT