* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP102019 08/24/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 32 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 36 32 29 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 29 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 2 3 8 9 19 20 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 32 38 194 205 192 175 174 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 25.6 24.9 23.9 23.6 22.2 21.2 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 112 101 98 82 70 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 54 52 53 48 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 16 15 13 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 6 -9 -19 -30 -33 -32 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -23 -34 -22 -24 -6 -10 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -1 1 1 -1 -3 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 549 516 499 472 431 363 318 325 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.2 23.0 23.9 24.7 26.2 27.0 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.5 116.8 117.2 117.6 118.2 118.1 118.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 6 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -15. -21. -29. -40. -45. -47. -50. -52. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.4 116.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102019 IVO 08/24/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.0 -33.0 to 156.2 0.05 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 250.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 IVO 08/24/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##