* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE AL052019 08/24/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 52 59 66 67 71 70 69 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 52 59 66 67 71 70 69 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 43 48 53 58 61 63 64 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 3 5 5 9 10 10 10 13 6 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 3 2 1 1 -1 -3 -2 -6 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 122 135 98 24 18 336 348 288 284 250 233 236 261 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 137 140 142 149 152 155 158 156 155 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 136 136 136 139 142 147 150 152 155 151 150 147 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 43 44 41 39 40 42 46 48 50 49 51 50 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 7 8 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 41 36 26 19 21 0 17 13 18 15 25 12 5 200 MB DIV 2 -6 -11 -22 -19 -4 -4 19 22 31 43 1 9 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -8 -7 -4 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 760 715 682 655 641 617 515 389 358 456 313 144 81 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.7 12.5 13.3 14.0 14.8 15.7 16.7 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.6 50.6 51.6 52.6 54.8 56.6 58.5 60.6 62.4 64.2 65.9 67.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 10 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 12 12 14 26 40 41 38 49 47 65 84 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -7. -11. -12. -15. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 22. 29. 36. 37. 41. 40. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 10.6 48.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 FIVE 08/24/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 20.9% 14.6% 9.6% 9.5% 11.5% 15.7% 33.4% Logistic: 4.8% 20.1% 16.5% 5.3% 1.9% 10.3% 13.1% 20.1% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 1.1% 0.7% Consensus: 3.8% 15.0% 11.2% 5.0% 3.8% 7.5% 10.0% 18.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 FIVE 08/24/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 FIVE 08/24/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 39 44 52 59 66 67 71 70 69 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 41 49 56 63 64 68 67 66 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 44 51 58 59 63 62 61 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 36 43 50 51 55 54 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT