* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/25/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 46 52 59 67 69 72 72 71 71 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 46 52 59 67 69 72 72 71 53 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 42 44 51 58 65 70 71 70 68 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 4 5 3 10 4 11 17 12 14 18 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 2 4 0 -2 0 -8 -4 0 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 138 120 62 43 14 352 313 291 247 252 214 245 208 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 140 141 146 152 154 157 155 155 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 136 135 139 141 145 151 153 155 150 149 146 147 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 42 39 38 39 41 43 45 49 47 49 50 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 11 8 8 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 39 28 17 18 16 9 12 11 8 19 18 6 1 200 MB DIV -5 -14 -26 -23 -8 -10 -10 27 10 27 43 -3 9 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -7 -6 -5 -3 0 1 -2 0 0 2 -5 LAND (KM) 714 690 668 651 653 569 413 369 487 256 121 61 -25 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.5 11.6 12.3 13.2 14.0 15.3 16.2 16.9 17.8 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 49.7 50.8 51.8 52.8 53.9 56.0 58.1 60.1 62.3 64.4 66.3 68.2 69.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 12 14 19 36 42 38 54 49 69 83 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -10. -13. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 24. 32. 34. 37. 37. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.8 49.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.07 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 313.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 33% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 22.5% 15.7% 11.8% 9.5% 12.6% 20.8% 33.3% Logistic: 6.1% 26.3% 21.1% 9.9% 4.9% 14.7% 18.6% 21.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 11.8% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% 2.0% 0.6% Consensus: 4.4% 20.2% 13.1% 7.3% 4.8% 9.4% 13.8% 18.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 46 52 59 67 69 72 72 71 53 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 49 56 64 66 69 69 68 50 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 43 50 58 60 63 63 62 44 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 41 49 51 54 54 53 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT