* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/25/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 41 45 53 60 67 69 74 73 71 71 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 41 45 53 60 67 69 74 73 71 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 47 54 60 66 70 69 67 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 5 2 5 9 6 8 14 8 16 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 6 2 -2 0 0 -8 -3 -2 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 122 87 78 71 347 6 314 286 259 238 230 269 246 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 140 141 144 150 154 157 157 156 154 155 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 140 141 144 149 153 155 154 153 148 145 142 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 40 39 40 41 42 45 49 48 47 50 48 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 11 9 10 7 8 6 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 25 18 15 12 6 14 12 15 14 28 10 9 -6 200 MB DIV -9 -23 -14 -10 -1 -11 16 15 34 44 11 0 10 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -4 -4 -2 0 1 0 0 1 2 6 1 LAND (KM) 663 634 621 645 606 464 343 401 408 196 79 0 -52 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.4 14.4 15.3 16.3 17.4 18.4 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 51.0 52.0 53.0 54.1 55.2 57.2 59.3 61.3 63.3 65.4 67.6 69.3 70.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 15 20 29 44 36 45 47 57 86 81 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -8. -12. -16. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 10. 18. 25. 32. 34. 39. 38. 36. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.9 51.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.12 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.69 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 311.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 19.3% 13.6% 9.0% 0.0% 11.8% 16.7% 26.5% Logistic: 2.5% 9.6% 6.9% 3.2% 1.2% 4.3% 9.0% 16.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 4.8% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.5% 11.2% 7.3% 4.1% 0.4% 5.4% 8.6% 14.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 39 41 45 53 60 67 69 74 73 71 45 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 43 51 58 65 67 72 71 69 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 37 45 52 59 61 66 65 63 37 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 37 44 51 53 58 57 55 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT