* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/25/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 44 51 57 63 66 69 69 72 74 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 44 51 57 63 66 69 69 55 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 46 52 58 62 65 67 54 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 1 1 5 2 8 11 16 16 20 8 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 5 5 1 -1 0 -5 -7 -4 -5 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 98 115 168 324 4 308 302 254 264 244 255 212 243 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 143 143 147 151 152 155 150 153 153 153 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 142 142 142 147 151 150 153 146 147 146 145 146 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 10 10 11 10 11 11 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 39 39 41 42 43 47 50 49 49 47 49 52 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 15 8 4 1 9 9 16 19 17 7 2 -21 200 MB DIV -17 -15 -11 -3 -16 -4 15 18 25 32 -6 -4 -6 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -5 -3 -1 0 1 -1 2 3 5 1 4 LAND (KM) 628 631 624 572 490 311 322 444 269 145 57 -55 52 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.8 13.7 14.7 15.7 16.6 17.6 18.8 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 52.3 53.5 54.6 55.6 56.7 59.0 61.1 63.0 65.1 66.9 68.6 70.3 72.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 17 24 31 44 41 45 45 47 76 91 66 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 22. 28. 31. 34. 34. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.1 52.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.96 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.71 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 315.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 20.9% 14.6% 11.2% 9.1% 12.5% 18.8% 35.1% Logistic: 5.0% 20.7% 18.3% 11.8% 4.9% 13.9% 13.7% 17.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.9% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% Consensus: 3.6% 15.5% 11.6% 7.7% 4.7% 9.1% 10.9% 17.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 41 44 51 57 63 66 69 69 55 48 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 42 49 55 61 64 67 67 53 46 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 44 50 56 59 62 62 48 41 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 35 41 47 50 53 53 39 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT