* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IVO EP102019 08/25/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 15 18 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 4 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 181 165 173 167 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.1 21.7 21.4 21.0 20.8 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 82 78 74 68 66 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 46 45 44 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -27 -32 -33 -26 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -2 1 -17 -4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 2 -2 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 377 340 321 314 313 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.1 25.8 26.5 26.9 27.2 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.3 117.6 117.9 118.0 118.1 117.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. -2. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -2. -6. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -18. -27. -33. -38. -43. -46. -50. -54. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.1 117.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102019 IVO 08/25/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 184.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.46 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102019 IVO 08/25/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##