* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/25/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 50 54 60 65 68 72 73 74 75 78 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 50 54 60 65 68 72 73 74 46 49 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 48 51 57 64 70 74 78 79 48 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 1 3 4 6 7 12 8 15 10 5 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 0 0 -1 0 -7 -2 -3 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 142 189 273 5 14 298 299 261 258 250 270 224 56 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 143 145 149 152 150 156 152 152 153 153 155 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 145 149 152 150 155 149 147 146 144 145 145 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 10 12 11 12 12 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 38 41 42 43 45 49 48 48 49 48 51 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 13 9 7 12 6 14 14 17 7 -2 -15 -36 200 MB DIV -17 -4 1 -15 -13 5 23 20 40 4 6 7 18 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -3 -1 1 2 1 0 5 7 4 4 4 LAND (KM) 636 620 558 464 362 270 378 355 204 129 15 -44 89 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.1 14.1 15.2 16.1 17.0 18.2 19.4 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 53.5 54.6 55.8 57.0 58.1 60.2 62.3 64.3 66.4 68.3 69.8 71.3 72.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 17 24 33 49 54 37 47 42 67 82 85 53 47 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 20. 25. 28. 32. 33. 34. 35. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.4 53.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.96 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 356.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.57 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 34.0% 22.9% 13.4% 11.6% 23.3% 33.2% 44.0% Logistic: 11.3% 34.6% 31.8% 23.2% 10.8% 31.8% 26.4% 27.4% Bayesian: 2.1% 30.5% 31.0% 1.3% 0.4% 11.5% 3.9% 1.5% Consensus: 7.0% 33.0% 28.5% 12.6% 7.6% 22.2% 21.1% 24.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/25/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 50 54 60 65 68 72 73 74 46 49 18HR AGO 40 39 42 46 50 56 61 64 68 69 70 42 45 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 44 50 55 58 62 63 64 36 39 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 40 45 48 52 53 54 26 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT