* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/26/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 60 64 70 74 76 75 73 73 73 75 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 60 64 70 74 76 75 73 49 44 46 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 53 57 61 70 80 85 86 84 55 48 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 0 3 6 0 6 7 12 14 15 5 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 0 1 0 -2 -1 -4 -5 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 174 132 29 49 56 314 255 267 242 280 235 319 47 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.5 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 149 151 149 152 154 151 154 155 154 160 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 145 149 151 149 151 151 147 148 147 144 149 141 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 10 12 11 12 12 12 11 12 700-500 MB RH 39 41 43 43 44 49 48 48 47 49 54 57 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 11 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 8 11 7 7 12 14 13 -1 -1 -30 -42 200 MB DIV -9 0 -7 -9 -6 25 24 21 5 -17 -3 10 15 700-850 TADV -5 -2 0 1 0 1 1 2 5 4 3 8 0 LAND (KM) 617 565 463 363 289 313 444 250 99 31 -70 21 133 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.6 14.7 15.8 17.1 18.1 19.0 20.0 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 54.7 55.9 57.0 58.1 59.3 61.3 63.3 65.4 67.3 69.1 70.8 72.3 73.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 34 49 53 38 44 44 51 83 90 59 52 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 19. 25. 29. 31. 30. 28. 28. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.6 54.7 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 14.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.98 7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 401.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.9% 49.7% 37.9% 31.7% 19.9% 44.0% 39.7% 37.2% Logistic: 13.3% 40.2% 40.6% 39.6% 17.4% 37.4% 22.1% 22.6% Bayesian: 3.1% 20.9% 34.2% 2.6% 0.9% 13.3% 2.3% 0.7% Consensus: 10.8% 36.9% 37.6% 24.6% 12.7% 31.6% 21.4% 20.2% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 54 60 64 70 74 76 75 73 49 44 46 18HR AGO 45 44 48 54 58 64 68 70 69 67 43 38 40 12HR AGO 45 42 41 47 51 57 61 63 62 60 36 31 33 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 45 49 51 50 48 24 19 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT