* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/26/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 63 66 73 75 78 77 76 76 77 79 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 63 66 73 75 78 77 58 49 50 52 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 62 67 76 85 87 85 64 53 61 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 6 1 3 5 8 9 11 2 4 2 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 1 0 -1 2 -3 2 -5 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 149 59 46 36 334 332 258 262 260 302 246 11 360 SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 144 149 152 149 151 156 152 154 153 152 155 154 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 149 152 149 151 155 150 149 145 143 144 141 139 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 12 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 41 43 43 43 46 47 47 48 50 55 58 61 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 10 10 10 8 7 5 4 3 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 8 9 11 2 0 9 14 13 2 -1 -24 -35 -70 200 MB DIV 5 0 -4 -8 15 22 17 28 -12 15 -1 21 8 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 2 1 2 2 6 8 5 7 3 LAND (KM) 558 469 372 296 275 389 320 145 54 -48 24 124 148 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.2 14.2 15.4 16.6 17.8 18.9 20.0 21.0 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 55.8 56.9 58.0 59.2 60.4 62.4 64.6 66.7 68.3 70.0 71.8 73.4 74.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 33 47 54 39 38 47 44 73 86 67 49 50 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -15. -17. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 23. 25. 28. 27. 26. 26. 27. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 11.8 55.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.98 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 4.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 433.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 43.7% 31.5% 20.4% 15.3% 40.8% 42.9% 39.3% Logistic: 9.5% 33.9% 31.1% 26.2% 10.5% 27.2% 11.7% 19.4% Bayesian: 2.1% 11.1% 11.3% 0.4% 0.3% 5.9% 0.6% 0.8% Consensus: 7.7% 29.5% 24.6% 15.7% 8.7% 24.6% 18.4% 19.8% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 58 63 66 73 75 78 77 58 49 50 52 18HR AGO 50 49 53 58 61 68 70 73 72 53 44 45 47 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 54 61 63 66 65 46 37 38 40 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 50 52 55 54 35 26 27 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT