* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/26/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 63 67 73 76 77 77 78 79 81 80 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 63 67 73 76 77 65 55 56 57 57 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 57 61 65 75 82 84 71 58 64 72 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 1 3 5 5 11 10 8 4 5 4 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -3 1 -2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 109 59 91 337 320 263 261 241 255 176 34 65 18 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.9 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 147 149 152 152 151 152 152 149 150 155 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 147 149 152 150 148 146 143 139 139 142 144 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 43 44 44 45 48 47 47 49 55 58 59 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 10 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 10 14 5 -1 0 11 13 15 10 -3 -37 -35 -50 200 MB DIV 6 -8 0 20 27 14 8 1 0 9 7 29 2 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 3 7 5 5 5 0 LAND (KM) 449 355 280 277 336 444 225 79 -11 13 168 234 227 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.4 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.8 16.0 17.4 18.5 19.9 21.4 22.6 23.3 LONG(DEG W) 57.1 58.1 59.2 60.3 61.4 63.4 65.6 67.6 69.2 70.8 72.4 74.1 76.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 10 11 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 51 56 39 37 47 42 54 87 76 48 41 64 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -16. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 17. 23. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29. 31. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.1 57.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 11.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.96 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 425.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.1% 44.9% 32.7% 25.4% 16.4% 41.4% 36.3% 25.4% Logistic: 16.2% 33.9% 31.1% 26.2% 11.1% 28.7% 19.0% 15.5% Bayesian: 7.1% 30.2% 45.8% 2.8% 2.1% 25.5% 9.7% 0.5% Consensus: 11.8% 36.3% 36.6% 18.2% 9.9% 31.9% 21.7% 13.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 59 63 67 73 76 77 65 55 56 57 57 18HR AGO 50 49 53 57 61 67 70 71 59 49 50 51 51 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 54 60 63 64 52 42 43 44 44 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 50 53 54 42 32 33 34 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT