* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORIAN AL052019 08/26/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 60 64 68 69 69 69 69 68 69 70 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 60 64 68 69 61 66 66 66 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 54 56 60 67 71 72 69 71 76 82 88 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 4 6 4 12 12 17 5 6 9 7 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -6 0 -2 -4 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 60 228 285 314 319 260 265 249 307 300 42 3 41 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 149 152 152 151 152 150 148 150 154 156 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 147 148 151 151 148 147 143 138 140 142 143 146 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 42 43 43 47 47 46 48 50 56 58 60 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 11 10 10 10 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 4 -1 0 8 2 3 -3 -8 -33 -48 -45 -21 200 MB DIV -5 -5 26 30 19 21 8 -6 20 22 21 18 15 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 0 0 4 3 6 6 5 3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 349 299 296 353 422 286 91 -14 32 178 269 334 271 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.5 15.8 17.1 18.5 20.0 21.4 22.7 24.1 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 58.3 59.3 60.4 61.4 62.4 64.5 66.6 68.5 70.0 71.7 73.5 75.4 77.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 53 39 39 49 46 43 77 71 53 41 61 75 58 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -18. -21. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 19. 19. 19. 18. 19. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 12.5 58.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 10.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.74 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.64 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 414.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 42.9% 31.3% 24.5% 16.9% 36.2% 31.2% 20.5% Logistic: 11.3% 31.0% 30.3% 23.8% 8.5% 17.3% 11.0% 11.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 14.0% 21.6% 1.2% 0.8% 6.7% 5.5% 0.3% Consensus: 7.1% 29.3% 27.7% 16.5% 8.7% 20.1% 15.9% 10.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052019 DORIAN 08/26/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 60 64 68 69 61 66 66 66 66 67 18HR AGO 50 49 52 56 60 64 65 57 62 62 62 62 63 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 54 58 59 51 56 56 56 56 57 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 48 49 41 46 46 46 46 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT